Sources: ADB’s Asian Development Outlook database; staff estimates.By Sam Campbell
Economics Today
Cambodia’s likely GDP growth, a key indicator of the health of the economy, seems to be very open to interpretation, with estimates for 2009 ranging from a 2.75 percent contraction to the almost unbelievable 6 percent increase still being peddled by some Cambodian government officials.
Predictions made earlier in the year have recently been revised, a reflection of the uncertainty about Cambodia’s immediate prospects, even among experts.The Asian Development Bank (ADB) lowered its GDP projection to a 1.5 percent contraction for 2009. In a Sept 22 update to the Asia Development Outlook 2009, the ADB said it expected a contraction because of a sharper than expected downturn in clothing exports, construction activity and tourism arrivals. “The economy is now expected to contract by 1.5 percent in 2009, rather than record slight growth [0.5 percent] as anticipated in ADO 2009,” the ADB wrote.
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