Friday, April 8, 2011

Why Thai Rice Production May Decline

Facing greater competition, the world’s leading rice exporter is determined to pull back on production

April 7, 2011
By Alan Bjerga and Supunnabul Suwannakij
Bloomberg

Many Thais revere Me Posop, the rice goddess who guards humankind and rewards good stewards of her grain. Me Posop has been kind to Thailand in recent decades. While its neighbors Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos struggled through war, Marxist-Leninism, and authoritarian rule, Thailand prospered from its new factories and booming rice exports. The nation surpassed Myanmar as the world’s top rice shipper in 1965: Last year 9 million tons of Thai rice were exported around the world. Thailand, like the Saudis in oil, became the key producer, the country that could always moderate global prices with its abundant reserves. This year, while corn and wheat prices have reached new highs, ample stockpiles of Thai rice have driven rice prices down.

Now the Thai government is proposing a major change in strategy for its rice growers, who feel hard pressed by low prices, an assault of pests, and the presence of low-cost competition from emerging rivals. The government seems ready to abandon Thailand’s position as the world top rice exporter—a serious decision, considering the mounting anxiety over the size and stability of the global food supply.

Thai farmers are certainly worried about their business. In the rice paddies near Ayutthaya, a former Siamese capital that 17th century emissaries from Louis XIV compared with Paris in its wealth and importance, Payao Ruangpueng must battle an infestation of rice planthoppers that are munching their way through the paddies. That’s not all. “We’re suffering from a rice price slump, crop damage, and lower-than-expected production,” she says, standing on the edge of a rain-soaked paddy. “Production costs are higher than income. We can’t afford to continue planting.”

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